WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.9N 127.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 517 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY 
IMPROVED CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A WARMER EYE TEMPERATURE 
(-22C) AND COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE 
CONSOLIDATED EYEWALL, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS WEAKER AND 
MORE FRAGMENTED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS 
ALONG A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SST. HWRF SST FIELDS INDICATE THE SYSTEM'S 
CORE MAY BE LOCATED OVER A NARROW FINGER OF HIGHER SST (28-29C) 
VALUES, WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING A TEMPORARY BOOST BUT IS EXPECTED TO 
BE SHORT-LIVED. WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW (ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY) CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONVERGENT
FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES 
OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT. SST VALUES ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE UNDER
THE CORE AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT ARE COOLER AND UNFAVORABLE
(26-27C) UNDER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 281011Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A NEAR-COMPLETE, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL 
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH INTENSE SPIRAL 
BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WEAKER, MORE 
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ELSEWHERE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON THE AGENCY CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 281130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT WILL GRADUALLY SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAY 3 AS IT ENTERS A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE EAST AND A STR TO THE WEST OVER
SOUTHEAST CHINA. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOLING SST
(26-27C) VALUES AND UPWELLING COOLER WATER AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS.
AFTER DAY 3, TY 02W WILL DRIFT POLEWARD WITHIN THE COMPETING
STEERING PATTERN WHILE WEAKENING STEADILY DUE TO COOLER SST VALUES
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 THEN DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL, THE 500MB FLOW
REMAINS ZONAL OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND JAPAN WITH A STRONG JET
OVER KOREA AND JAPAN BUT NO DEEP, DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT
TO RAPIDLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THIS LACKLUSTER PATTERN IS
REFLECTED IN THE ECMWF AND GFS (EPS AND GEFS) PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOW A WIDE EAST-WEST SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS.      

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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