WDPN31 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 033// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.3N 128.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 554 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EYE AT 0C AND 12 NM WIDE. WARMING CLOUD TOPS ARE NOTED IN THE 280000Z IR-BD IMAGE INDICATING DRY AIR IS STILL BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC FROM THE OUTER BANDS. THIS DRY AIR, ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM PROXIMITY TO THE COOLER (26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) TO THE NORTH, IS CAUSING AN OVERALL RAPID WEAKENING TREND. TY MAWAR IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A PRONOUNCED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 C) SST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI IMAGERY. DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING SCENARIO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 121 KTS AT 271617Z CIMSS ADT: 110 KTS AT 272330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W IS RIDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH TAU 36, TY MAWAR WILL STAY ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY AND STEADILY WEAKEN TO 95 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED TROPICAL ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS FROM THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST TO A RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM OVER CHINA TO THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 60, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE AS THESE TWO RIDGES ORIENTATE THEMSELVES. BY TAU 72 AND BEYOND, THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND DRIVE TY MAWAR NORTHEASTWARD. ALL THE WHILE, THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 55 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COOLER (25-26C) SSTS ABOVE THE 20TH PARALLEL, AS WELL AS THE UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE SYSTEM DURING ITS SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN A RELATIVELY TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM SHOWING A 50 NM BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS THEY TRY TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO HANDLE THE ANTICIPATED SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED BETWEEN TAUS 48 THROUGH 60. ALSO DURING THESE TAUS, THE TRACK MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WHERE THE NAVGEM AND AFUM SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE FAR WEST OF THE CONSENSUS ENVELOPE, AND THE GFS SOLUTION IS ON THE FAR EAST. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A RECURVE SCENARIO TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 60. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, THE TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE SPREAD OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN