WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) 
WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
  INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 129.7E
  INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
  GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 580 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB
  MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KTS
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EYE AT 15C AND 
22 NM WIDE. A PARTIAL 271634Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PASS SHOWS THE BANDS 
BECOMING FRAGMENTED AS THIS SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING RAPID WEAKENING. 
THIS WEAKENING TREND IS DUE TO DRY AIR BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE 
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE SYSTEM PROXIMITY TO THE 
COOLER (26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) TO THE NORTH. TC 
MAWAR IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL ACTIVITY. 
THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, A HEALTHY 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW (10-15 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 C) SST. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY FIXES, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR IMAGERY AND THE 
RECENT AMSR2 PASS. DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING SCENARIO, THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PARTIAL 271251Z ASCAT-B PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE 
NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
  PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
  RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
  KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
  CIMSS SATCON: 133 KTS AT 271706Z
  CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 271800Z 

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  VWS: 10-15 KTS
  SST: 28-28 CELSIUS
  OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 

3. FORECAST REASONING. 

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02W IS RIDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH TAU 48, TC MAWAR WILL STAY
ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED TROPICAL ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM
WILL SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS 
FROM THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST TO A RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING IN 
FROM OVER CHINA TO THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 60 THROUGH TAU 72, THERE 
IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE 
AS THESE TWO RIDGES ORIENTATE THEMSELVES. BY TAU 96 AND BEYOND, THE 
STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND 
DRIVE TC MAWAR NORTHEASTWARD. ALL THE WHILE, THE INTENSITY WILL 
STEADILY DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS AND COOLER (25-26C) SSTS 
ABOVE THE 20TH PARALLEL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, THEN SOME DISAGREEMENT AFTERWARDS AS THEY TRY TO 
FIGURE OUT THE STR LOCATIONS DURING THE LATER TAUS. THE ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A RECURVE SCENARIO TO THE NORTHEAST
AFTER TAU 60. THE NAVGEM TRACKER IS THE OUTLIER SHOWING A 
MORE EQUATORWARD TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEMBERS. DUE 
TO THIS, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE JUST 
TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE 
AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE SPREAD OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY 
CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE RAPID WEAKENING, THE JTWC IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
  TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

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