WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
031//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.8N 130.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 607 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A 
MATURE AND HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM OF TIGHTLY WRAPPING DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A LARGE (25NM) EYE. VIEWED WITH 
A DB CURVE ENHANCMENT, EIR REVEALS A RECENTLY FRAGMENTED 
ARITHMETIC SPIRAL OF BLACK (-64 TO -69C), WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE 
SYSTEMS DOWNWARD TREND. A 270805Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS A RECENTLY COMPLETED EYE WALL WITH NUMEROUS FRAGMENTED 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM ALL 
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE 25NM EYE IN BOTH EIR AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH GENERALLY INDICATE 
127KTS. FINAL T NUMBERS CONTINUE TO FALL BASED ON THE EYE METHOD 
AS THE COLDEST FULLY SURROUNDING TEMPERATURE WARMS BEYOND BLACK 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, FURTHER EVIDENCE THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY 
DETERIORATING. 


INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS 
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS 
   CIMSS ADT: 113 KTS AT 271200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W (MAWAR) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE 
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
STR TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE COMING HOURS, 02W IS FORECASTED TO 
BE DETHRONED AS A SUPER-TYPHOON AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS
WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 24 AS 02W MOVES INTO AN EVEN LESS 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY COOLING SSTS AND DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST, INTENSITIES WILL FALL TO 110KTS. BY 
TAU 48, AS 02W APPROACHES THE LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL ENTER A 
COMPLEX AND COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT ENTRENCHED BETWEEN A 
STR TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AND THE OTHER STR TO 
THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, WEAK OUTFLOW, COOLER SSTS AND 
DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM CHINA, WILL CONSPIRE TO FURTHER WEAKEN 
THE SYSTEM AS 02W TRANSITIONS TO A GENERALLY NORTHWARD HEADING. 
AS THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY STEADIES UP ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY HARSH ENVIRONMENT, INTENSITIES WILL FALL 
TO AROUND 60KTS BY TAU 120 AND CONTINUE TO FALL THEREAFTER.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 110NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK 
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER TAU 72, THE COMPETING STEERING PATTERN 
INCREASES THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK 
WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE 
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION EAST OF TAIWAN. COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION), 
HWRF AND AFUM THROW CAUTION TO THE WIND AND PLOW STRAIGHT INTO THE 
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO TAIWAN. THE BULK OF THE 
GUIDANCE HOWEVER, STAYS CLOSE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING 
TAU 72. AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF 
THE TURN, THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC TRACK MOTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR 
IN THE LATER TAUS, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE OUT TO TAU 72, BECOMING MEDIUM 
THEREAFTER. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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