WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
030//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.6N 132.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 643 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 56 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A 
SYMMETRIC SYSTEM OF TIGHTLY WRAPPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS 
FEEDING INTO A LARGE (30NM) EYE. A RECENT 270421Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LARGE AND NEARLY COMPLETE EYE WALL 
WITH NUMEROUS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 30NM EYE IN BOTH MSI
AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
WHICH INDICATE 127KTS AND CIMMS ADT/AiDT INDICATING 
115-120KTS WHILE CIMMS D-MINT AND D-PRINT REMAIN HIGHER AT 
151KTS AND 137KTS RESPECTIVELY. HAVING LIKELY CONCLUDED AN 
EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE 
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE DROPPED TEMPORARILY AS THE 
NEW EYE WALL FORMS AND SETTLES IN, SO A RUSH TO DRAMATICALLY 
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE THE CORRECT PATH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS 
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS 
   CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 270600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W (MAWAR) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE 
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
STR TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE COMING HOURS, STY 02W IS LIKELY TO 
CONTINUE ON THIS WEAKENING TREND AND FINALLY WEAKEN BELOW STY 
STRENGTH BY TAU 24 AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY COOLING SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE 
WEST. BY TAU 48, AS 02W APPROACHES THE LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL 
ENTER A COMPLEX AND COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT ENTRENCHED 
BETWEEN A STR TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AND THE OTHER
STR TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, WEAK OUTFLOW, COOLER SSTS AND 
DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM CHINA, WILL CONSPIRE TO FURTHER WEAKEN 
THE SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A GENERALLY NORTHWARD HEADING. 
AS STY 02W EVENTUALLY STEADIES UP ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK 
IN AN INCREASINGLY HARSH ENVIRONMENT, INTENSITIES WILL FALL TO 
AROUND 60KTS BY TAU 120 AND CONTINUE TO FALL THEREAFTER.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 110NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK 
DURING THIS TIME. AT THE APPROACH TO TAU 72 AND BEYOND, THE 
COMPETING STEERING PATTERN INCREASES THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN TRACK 
SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION EAST OF TAIWAN. 
COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION), HWRF AND AFUM THROW CAUTION TO THE WIND 
AND PLOW STRAIGHT INTO THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO 
TAIWAN. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER, STAYS CLOSE TO THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING TAU 72. AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO 
STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THE POTENTIAL FOR 
ERRATIC TRACK MOTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATER TAUS, LENDING 
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
OUT TO TAU 72, BECOMING MEDIUM THEREAFTER. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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