WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.4N 133.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 500 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 57 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES SUPER 
TYPHOON (STY) 02W REMAINS A LARGE CONCENTRIC FORCE IN THE 
WESTERN PACIFIC WITH A FORMIDABLE 25NM DIAMETER EYE. A 19C 
WARM CENTER REMAINS IN THE EYE-FEATURE, ALONG WITH A BANDING 
FEATURE, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO FORM ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
 MAIN SYSTEM. A 262051Z RCM-2 IMAGE, A 262132Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE, ALONG WITH THE EYE-FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP, 
ALLOWS FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL 
POSITION. THE DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES 
HAVE ALL BEEN DECREASING IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH, THE 
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, THE  SYSTEM IS WEAKENING 
LENDING ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY AT THIS TIME.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS 
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS 
   CIMSS ADT: 120 KTS AT 270000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COMPLETE

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK, 
SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT JAUNTS TOWARD THE LUZON STRAIT. STY MAWAR
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THIS WEAKENING TREND AND FINALLY WEAKEN
BELOW STY STRENGTH BY TAU 24 AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLING SSTS AND DRY AIR TO THE WEST. AS STY 02W
APPROACHES THE LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL ENTER A COMPLEX COMPETING 
STEERING ENVIRONMENT ENTRENCHED BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST 
OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AND THE OTHER STR TO THE EAST. DURING THIS 
TRANSIT, WEAK OUTFLOW, COOLER SSTS, AND DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT 
FROM CHINA, WILL START TO INHIBIT ANY IMPROVEMENT ON THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES IN A MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST 
DIRECTION. AS STY 02W TRACKS TO THE NORTH, IT WILL START ENGULFING 
THE DRY AIR, WHICH WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM ON THE APPROACH TO 
OKINAWA, JAPAN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 120NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK. AT THE APPROACH TO TAU 72 AND BEYOND, THE COMPETING 
STEERING PATTERN INCREASES THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS
AND POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION LIKELY EAST OF TAIWAN. 
GFS IS NO LONGER THE ONLY MODEL RELATING THE CURVE TO THE 
NORTHEAST, NOW OCCURRING IN MULTIPLE MODELS AT OR NEAR TAU 72. 
AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF THE 
TURN, THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC TRACK MOTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR 
IN THE LATER TAUS, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE OUT TO TAU 72, BECOMING LOW 
THEREAFTER. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN