WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.1N 134.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 145 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 441 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 59 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) AS INDICATED BY THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT, WHICH THE SYSTEM
WAS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE REPLACEMENT. HOWEVER,
THE HIGHLY CONCENTRIC EYE FEATURE ONLY DECREASED TO 22NM, REGAINING
AFTER THE ERC TO 26NM DIAMETER EYE WITH A WARMER CENTER TEMPERATURE
OF 19.8C SHORTLY AFTER. A 261857Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY ALLOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE DVORAK
DATA-T ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES HAVE DECREASED IN THEIR
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) AS LISTED BELOW, WITH PGTW LEADING AT T7.5
(155 KNOTS) TO A LOW T7.0 (140KTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KTS
REFLECTS THE MOST RECENT WEAKENING CYCLE AND IS SET WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   RJTD: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   CIMSS ADT: 137 KTS AT 261420Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COMPLETE

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTBOUND TRACK
WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND, AND A SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION BY TAU
24. STY 02W WILL FINALLY WEAKEN BELOW STY STRENGTH BY TAU 36 AS IT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STY 02W WILL MOVE
INTO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BY TAU 72, AND THE SYSTEM
WILL STRUGGLE AS IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST,
OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA, AND A STR TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ON
A MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION, IT START DRAWING DRY-AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. THE DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL HELP SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH COOLING SST AND A REDUCTION OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. STY 02W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH IS A
SLIGHT SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 120. THE COMPLEX
COMPETING SYSTEM IS LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK IN
THE LATER PERIODS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 120NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING PATTERN AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH A MARKED
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
LIKELY EAST OF TAIWAN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE OVERALL TRACK AFTER TAU 72 AND INDICATES A BIFURCATION IN
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE TAIWAN
STRAIT WITH A SHARP RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THE REST OF
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THEY TOO ARE INDICATING A RECURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST, HOWEVER, AT MORE GRADUAL RATE AND STEEPNESS. DUE TO
THIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR FORECAST TRACK ERRATIC MOTION, THE OVERALL
JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OUT TO TAU 72 AND FADES
QUICKLY TO LOW THEREAFTER. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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