WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)        
WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.7N 136.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 145 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 810 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 64 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT 
CYCLE (ERC) AS PREDICTED BY THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT OVER THE PAST 
DAY. A 260857Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONCENTRIC 
EYEWALLS SEPARATED BY A MOAT FEATURE WITH THE SMALL INNER EYEWALL 
BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE OUTER EYEWALL 
CONSOLIDATES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH WARMING 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER (17.8C) EYE TEMPERATURE. 
EIR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO SHOW A ROUND, 26NM EYE, WHICH 
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN GENERAL, 
DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES HAVE DECREASED TO 
THE T6.5 TO T7.0 (127 TO 140 KNOTS) RANGE WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 7.5 TO 8.0 (155 TO 170 KNOTS). ADT ESTIMATES 
HAVE DECREASED STEADILY TO 7.1 (143 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
145 KTS REFLECTS THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND IS ASSESSED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON A 260855Z RCM-2 SAR MAXIMUM WIND 
VALUE OF 138 KNOTS AND THE ADT ESTIMATE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN 
ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE RCM-2 SAR IMAGE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T8.0 - 170 KTS
   RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 143 KTS AT 261130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE COMPLETING THE ERC. AFTER TAU 12, SLIGHT
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24. STY 02W WILL MAINTAIN
STY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THEN
MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72 ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING
SST AND REDUCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. STY 02W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 72, STY 02W WILL TURN
GRADUALLY POLEWARD AND WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST, OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA, AND A
STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN MORE 
RAPIDLY DUE TO WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT, COOL UPWELLING WATER AND DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 135NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING PATTERN AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS 
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH A MARKED 
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION LIKELY 
EAST OF TAIWAN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE 260600Z ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE (EPS) WHICH SHOWS A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM A 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE 260600Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SHOWS A SIMILAR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE BULK OF 
THE SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK EAST 
OF TAIWAN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BIFURCATION IN 
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 5 WITH HALF THE SOLUTIONS TRACKING 
THE SYSTEM OVER TAIWAN AND INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE 
OTHER HALF RECURVING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE 
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL 
FOR ERRATIC MOTION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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