WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)        
WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.3N 138.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 155 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 881 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 66 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) AS PREDICTED BY THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT OVER THE PAST
DAY. A 260546Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE CLEARLY
REVEALS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SEPARATED BY A MOAT FEATURE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE AMSR2 IMAGE ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE SPIRAL BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH A MORE
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, EIR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A ROUND 25NM EYE WITH WARM (20.8C) EYE
TEMPERATURES, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. IN GENERAL, DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES
HAVE DECREASED TO T7.0 (140 KNOTS) WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONSTRAINED AT 7.5 (155 KNOTS). AFTER PEAKING AT 7.5 AROUND
252100Z, RAW ADT ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED STEADILY TO 6.8 (135
KNOTS). THE LATEST D-PRINT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE HAS ALSO DECREASED TO
150 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155 KTS REFLECTS THE RECENT
WEAKENING TREND AND IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
CONSERVATIVELY ON THE RJTD AND KNES CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T8.0 - 170 KTS
   RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   KNES: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 158 KTS AT 260147Z
   CIMSS ADT: 149 KTS AT 260530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS WHILE COMPLETING AN ERC. AFTER TAU 12, SLIGHT
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24. STY 02W WILL MAINTAIN STY
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72 ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING
SST AND REDUCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. STY 02W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 72, STY 02W WILL TURN
GRADUALLY POLEWARD AND WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST, OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA, AND A
STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DUE TO 
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT, POSSIBLY COOL UPWELLING WATER AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 90NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE 251200Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH
PROBABILITIES (70-90 PERCENT) OF STY STRENGTH INTENSITY MAINTAINING
THROUGH TAU 36 WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING PROBABILITIES (70 TO 20
PERCENT) FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 72. DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING
PATTERN AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS
AND POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION LIKELY EAST OF TAIWAN. THIS
SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. THE 260000Z GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES GREATER UNCERTAINTY
AFTER DAY 5 WITH A BIFURCATION IN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE; HALF THE
SOLUTIONS TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER TAIWAN AND INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA WHILE THE OTHER HALF RECURVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, THE LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC MOTION WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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