WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.1N 139.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 160 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 336 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 68 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE,
HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME 
MORE DENSE AS IT MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 23-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 160KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE IMPROVED EIR STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND
STRONG RADIAL VENTILATION ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T8.0 - 170 KTS
   RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   KNES: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 149 KTS AT 252330Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 152 KTS AT 260000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE 
NORTHEAST UNTIL IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ROUND THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 
72 AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WILL MAINTAIN ITS SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, 
REDUCED MOISTURE INFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATER, THEN
INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 75KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 150NM AT TAU 72 THEN OPENING UP MORE TO
320NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD IN VIEW OF THE LARGER SPREAD AND VARIABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RECURVATURE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS 
MEDIUM UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW AFTERWARD.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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