WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.9N 140.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 155 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 266 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 65 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE COMPACT
AS IT MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 22-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 155KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE IMPROVED EIR STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND
STRONG RADIAL VENTILATION ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   KNES: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 149 KTS AT 251604Z
   CIMSS ADT: 149 KTS AT 251730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 153 KTS AT 251631Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE 
NORTHEAST UNTIL IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ROUND THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 
72 AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, REDUCED 
MOISTURE INFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATER WILL 
GRADUALLY REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 90KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 120NM AT TAU 72 THEN OPENING UP MORE TO
250NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW AFTERWARD.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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