WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)         
WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.7N 141.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 150 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 191 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 63 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 120 KNOTS AT 241200Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
150 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 20-22NM SLIGHTLY OBLONG EYE WITH A 21.0C EYE TEMPERATURE
AND A NEAR-SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. THE 250910Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS AN 80-100NM DIAMETER CORE WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 150 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM T7.0 TO T7.5, AS WELL
AS THE CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES. THE LATEST D-PRINT AND
D-MINT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO THE 153-157
KNOT RANGE. AS A SIDE NOTE, A 250847Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE INDICATED 
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 111 KNOTS, WHICH WERE ASSESSED AS ERRONEOUSLY LOW DUE 
TO THE HIGH INCIDENCE ANGLES OF 50-51 DEGREES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   CIMSS SATCON: 146 KTS AT 251047Z
   CIMSS ADT: 149 KTS AT 251130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WITH
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 155 KNOTS BUT COULD EASILY GO HIGHER.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT
WEAKENING BY TAU 72. STY 02W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH. AFTER TAU 72, STY 02W WILL TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD TAIWAN AND WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST, OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA, AND A
STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAKER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
POSSIBLY COOL UPWELLING WATER AND SOME LIMITED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 90NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72 THEREFORE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
250600Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH PROBABILITIES
(85-100 PERCENT) OF STY STRENGTH INTENSITY MAINTAINING THROUGH TAU 48 
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING PROBABILITIES (90 TO 50 PERCENT) FROM TAU 54
TO TAU 72. DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING PATTERN AFTER TAU 72,
THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE AND A LARGER CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
ABOUT 200NM BY TAU 120. EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LARGER SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SOLUTIONS OVER NORTHERN LUZON
AND SOME OVER OR CLOSE TO TAIWAN. THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER, REMAIN IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72, THE TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOW ASSESSED AS LOW. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 WITH A RANGE OF
70-90 KNOTS BY TAU 120.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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