WDPN31 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.5N 142.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 145 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 124 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 60 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) AND WEAKENING TO 115 KNOTS AT 240600Z, THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY RE-INTENSIFIED 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 23NM ROUND EYE WITH A 20.0C EYE TEMPERATURE AND A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. THE 250633Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A 90NM DIAMETER CORE WITH SPIRAL BANDING PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM T7.0 TO T7.5, AS WELL AS THE CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES. THE CIMSS ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES OF 146 AND 144 KNOTS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST FOUR HOURS (FROM 250330-250730Z) THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HIGH. THE LATEST D-PRINT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE MAINTAINED IN THE 138-140 KNOT RANGE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 145 KTS AT 250331Z CIMSS ADT: 146 KTS AT 250530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W HAS CLEARLY CONSOLIDATED WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW THUS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT NEAR 150 KNOTS BUT COULD EASILY GO HIGHER. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING BY TAU 72. STY 02W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 72, STY 02W WILL TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN AND WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST, OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA, AND A STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAKER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POSSIBLY COOL UPWELLING WATER AND SOME LIMITED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 125NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 THEREFORE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING PATTERN AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE AND A LARGER CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ABOUT 230NM BY TAU 120. EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR SPREAD. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 WITH A RANGE OF 70-90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN