WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.3N 143.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 89 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 54 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) A LARGE, POWERFUL,
EXPANSIVE (ROMCI NOW AT 480NM), AND VERY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND TIGHTEN AS IT MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED

14-NM PINHOLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED EIR STRUCTURE
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD VENTILATION
ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 123 KTS AT 241939Z
   CIMSS ADT: 130 KTS AT 250000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR WILL CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND
ROUND THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 96 AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 145KTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD,
REDUCED MOISTURE INFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATER
WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 90KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 140NM AT TAU 72 THEN OPENING UP MORE TO
245NM BY TAU 120. THERE ARE NO DISTINCT OUTLIERS IN THE ENVELOPE;
HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN MODELS, INCLUDING EEMN, ECMWF, AND UKMET ARE
ON THE LEFT MARGIN ON A MORE STRAIGHT-RUNNER TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE
LUZON STRAIT. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72, THEN
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD,AND LAID TO THE RIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM UP
TO TAU 72, THEN LOW AFTERWARD.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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