WDPN31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.8N 144.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 13 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION, WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES, SURROUNDING A CLOUD-FILLED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LATEST SET OF POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD, ALL OF WHICH ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM SPOT IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND A BIT HIGHER THAN AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. REPORTED WIND SPEED GUSTS AT PGUM PEAKED AT 91 KNOTS AT 241000Z, AFTER WHICH REPORTS FROM THE SENSOR ARE UNAVAILABLE. TY MAWAR HAS COMPLETED THE SHIFT TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OBSERVED AROUND THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING, AND THE CENTER HAS PASSED ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE ISLAND OF GUAM. HOWEVER, POTENTIALLY SEVERE IMPACTS TO GUAM ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE NOTED DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STORM CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 241122Z CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 241130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS NOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OF TYPHOON MAWAR, AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOW WILL PUSH THE SYSTEM ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN A POLEWARD TURN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS, SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, RESTRICTED MOIST INFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE THE INTENSITY. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEFS ARE NORTHERN OUTLIERS ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH CLOSER TO THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING ON THIS CYCLE THAN THE LAST. THE GALWEM MODEL IS ALSO AN OUTLIER ON THIS RUN, IN THAT CASE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY GROUP THROUGH TAU 72. ALL OF THREE OUTLIERS DEPICT SOLUTIONS THAT NEARLY PARALLEL THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT ORIENTATION OF HE TRACK IS MEDIUM BASED ON NOTED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATING STRONG TYPHOON TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES THROUGH TAU 96. HWRF IS AGAIN AT THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING, CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION, AND OVER COOLER WATER. GIVEN GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND OTHER INNER-CORE CHANGES WITHIN THE INTENSE TYPHOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN