WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.6N 145.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 18 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEPENING
CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TY 02W, WHICH REMAINS 
CLOUD FILLED. HOWEVER, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON 240600Z GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND 240556Z 37 GHZ DATA FROM THE GMI SENSOR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, A 113 KT OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM 240349Z, AND VELOCITIES MEASURED
FROM DOPPLER RADAR DATA WHILE STILL AVAILABLE. TY 02W CONTINUED TO 
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT APPEARS TO BE FINALLY 
TAKING AN EXPECTED WESTWARD TURN BASED ON THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF 
AVAILABLE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION IS 
BLOSSOMING AROUND THE CENTER AS THE CIRCULATION RECOVERS FROM AN 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, A HARBINGER OF EXPECTED NEAR-TERM 
REINTENSIFICATION IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 113 KTS AT 240349Z
   CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 240530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: RECOVERY FROM EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MAWAR IS APPROACHING AND
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF GUAM
NEAR ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RECOVER
FROM AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE STORM
CORE THROUGHOUT THE SAME PERIOD. THAT PATTERN STILL APPEARS TO
HOLD, WHICH LIKELY MEANS THE MOST SEVERE IMPACTS IN TERMS OF WIND
AND RAINFALL ARE YET TO COME FOR MUCH OF GUAM. IN THE MEDIUM TO
EXTENDED RANGE, TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENTRENCHED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN A POLEWARD TURN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. FAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUPPORTIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 96. A WEAKENING TREND, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER, IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEFS ARE NOTEWORTHY NORTHERN
OUTLIERS ON THE LATEST RUN, ALTHOUGH THESE SOLUTIONS PARALLEL THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIMARY GROUPING SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS, AND IS PLACED NEAR THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS WELL, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MODELS
INDICATING STRONG TYPHOON TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES THROUGH TAU
96. THE HWRF SOLUTION IS ON THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
72, BUT THE HWRF TRACK ALSO LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY MODEL
GROUPING AND CARRIES THE SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATER SOONER THAN
EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. GIVEN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND OTHER
INNER-CORE CHANGES WITHIN THE INTENSE TYPHOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 120.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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