WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.0N 145.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FAIRLY
ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS SPENT THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS FIGHTING
OFF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, ANALYSIS
OF THE 232033Z CIMSS M-PERC TOOL INDICATES AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) IS STILL UNDERWAY AS THE SECONDARY EYEWALL IS MAKING
ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CORE. A 232032Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS SHOWS THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 232005Z
RSAT2 SAR PASS SHOWS THE SAME ASYMMETRICAL NATURE ALONG WITH AN
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 114 KNOTS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOP
FROM ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE (PGUA) SHOWS BANDS OF CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT PASSING OVER GUAM, ROTA, AND THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS. IN ADDITION, THE EYE OF TC 02W IS IDENTIFIABLE AS
IT APPROACHES GUAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS OF THE BEHAVIOR OF
THE EYE ON RADAR INDICATES A WOBBLE IN TRACK. THIS WOBBLE IS
INDICATIVE OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING ERC AS PREVIOUSLY STATED.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TRANSIT OF THE SYSTEM IS NORTHWESTWARD. RECENT
SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
(PGUM) INDICATE CONSISTENT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
30-35 KTS AND GUSTS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION, THE 240140Z
PGUA OBSERVATION SHOWS WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 50 KTS, GUSTS OF 56
KTS. TC MAWAR IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE, MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF A BLEND OF
MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, ANALYSIS OF THE CIMSS
ERC TOOL AND THE RECENT SAR PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 232005Z RSAT2 SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 102 KTS AT 232159Z
   CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 240130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02W IS RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST. THROUGH TAU 12, TC MAWAR WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS AS THE STORM CENTER MAKES
ITS PASS OVER GUAM. AFTER TAU 12, TC MAWAR WILL MAKE THE TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTH.
THIS STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PASSING INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
THE DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) LOCATED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
THIS EVENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE INTENSITY TO 140 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. BY TAUS 96 AND 120, TC 02W WILL BE NEARING THE STR AXIS 
AND WILL HEAD ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PULL THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. DURING THIS
TIME TC MAWAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER COOLER (26 C)
SST AT APPROXIMATELY THE 20TH LATITUDE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT TC MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12, THEN MAKE THE TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 24. IN
THE SHORT TERM, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING A 23 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 THAT GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 50 NM
BY TAU 36. THE SPREAD THEN INCREASES TO 100 NM AND STAYS STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAVGEM AND AFUM TRACKERS ARE
THE OUTLIERS SHOWING MORE POLEWARD TRACKS AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MEMBERS. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE SPREAD OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY
CONSENSUS DISPLAYS AN AVERAGE OF A 30 KNOT SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND COMAPS-TC INTENSITY SOLUTIONS ARE THE
OUTLIERS SHOWING LOWER VALUES THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS. HOWEVER, ALL
INTENSITY MEMBERS AGREE ON AN INCREASE UP TO TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY A
DIP AFTERWARDS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SYSTEM PASSING INTO A
MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LATER TAUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND RECENT ERC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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