WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.2N 146.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 114 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SOLID
RING OF DEEP CONVECTION, A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
SIDE, SURROUNDING A 12 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE EVIDENT IN BOTH RADAR
AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 
KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RADAR VELOCITY DATA. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT A SMALL SLOT OF DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM CORE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, POSSIBLY 
ACCOUNTING FOR THE OBSERVED SUSPENSION OF THE PREVIOUS 
INTENSIFICATION TREND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND SMAP DATA FROM
230753Z

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   CIMSS ADT: 140 KTS AT 231130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR
SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR TO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION REMAINS THE
IMPACT OF INNER-CORE DYNAMICS, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL 
REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MARGINAL 
INTENSIFICATION TO 140 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BASED ON HIGHLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, THE 
SYSTEM IS TURNING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE 
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE 
PROJECTED TRACK WILL CARRY STY MAWAR OVER THE ISLAND OF GUAM WITHIN 
12 TO 18 HOURS, ALMOST CERTAINLY INCLUDING PASSAGE OF THE INNER 
EYEWALL. STY 02W WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINDER OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD, APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH NO NOTEWORTHY OUTLIERS, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AVAILABLE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST, ALL AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS LIE IN THE STRONG TYPHOON TO
SUPER TYPHOON RANGE. GIVEN THE ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR INNER-CORE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND SOME SPREAD IN MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE,
CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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