WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.8N 146.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 148 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE CLASSIC,
SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN TYPICAL OF A SUPER TYPHOON, WITH AN OUTER
BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES CURRENTLY
APPROACHING GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN APPROXIMATELY
15-20 NM DIAMETER EYE EVIDENT IN BOTH RADAR AND GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES,
OBJECTIVE DVORAK AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS BASED INTENSITIES, AND
RADAR VELOCITY DATA. WHILE AN EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED, RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
FORMATION OF A NEW INNER BAND THAT COULD BE THE PRECURSOR OF
ANOTHER ERC IN THE HOURS AHEAD.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND RADAR VELOCITY
DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   CIMSS SATCON: 129 KTS AT 230319Z
   CIMSS ADT: 134 KTS AT 230530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: ANALYZED WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED
RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR CONTINUES TO UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, SUPPORTED BY VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
AND A WARM SEA SURFACE. THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR TO ADDITIONAL
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS THE IMPACT OF INNER-CORE DYNAMICS
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION TO 140 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND IT IS ALL BUT CERTAIN THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE EYE OVER OR NEAR GUAM. THE SYSTEM WILL TURN INCREASINGLY TOWARD
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING BUILDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 120.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE STORM
TRACK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN A
FORMIDABLE TYPHOON.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, LEAVING LITTLE DOUBT THAT GUAM
IS IN FOR A DIRECT OR NEARLY-DIRECT HIT FROM SUPER TYPHOON MAWAR.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED
INTENSIFY AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STATUS. BEYOND TAU 24, THE
GENERAL TREND IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR
AMONG THE PRIMARY MODELS. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST LIES IN THE CROSS-TRACK DIRECTION - ALONG TRACK SPEEDS
AMONG THE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY CLOSE. NEAR-TERM TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON TIGHT PACKING OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
THROUGH TAU 72. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
INCREASES TO A MODEST 190 NM BY TAU 120, AND THE FORECAST LIES NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HWRF AND
COAMPS-TC MODELS, SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF STRONG TYPHOON TO SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE ONGOING
POTENTIAL FOR INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND SOME SPREAD IN
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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