WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.5N 146.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 222 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 41 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND IS NOW A 110 KNOT TYPHOON. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAS SPENT THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS TAKING A SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH DEEP, CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION, A 221810Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE AND A PARTIAL 221737Z GPM 37 GHZ SHOW DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING
IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ANDERSEN AIR FORCE
(PGUA) BASE SHOWS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING GUAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MOREOVER, RECENT
SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (PGUM)
INDICATE CONSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ANALYSIS OF THE 221810Z CIMMS M-PERC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
TOOL INDICATES A CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)
TAKING PLACE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. TC MAWAR IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A
PRONOUNCED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY FIXES AND THE ABOVEMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 87 KTS AT 221612Z
   CIMSS ADT: 100 KTS AT 222000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW A 110 KNOT TYPHOON. TC 02W IS
RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DURING TAUS 12
THROUGH 24, TC MAWAR WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY
INTENSIFY TO 115 KTS AND 120 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY AS THE STORM CENTER
MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF GUAM. BETWEEN TAUS 24
AND 36, TC MAWAR WILL MAINTAIN ITS 120 KNOTS INTENSITY AS IT MAKES
THE TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS IN OVER
THE NORTH. THIS STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, STEERING THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 48. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING INTO A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL LEND A HAND TO
INCREASE THE INTENSIFICATION. AS A RESULT, TC MAWAR WILL REACH 125
KNOTS BY TAUS 72 AND 96, AND FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 130 KNOTS BY TAU
120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT TC MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN MAKE THE TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A 16 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 THAT
GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 33 NM BY TAU 24, AND 49 NM BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASE TO 138 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE SPREAD OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC
INTENSITY CONSENSUS DISPLAYS A 20 KNOT SPREAD THROUGH TAU 36, MORE
THAN LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASES INTO THE LATER TAUS. HOWEVER, THEY
DO AGREE WITH AN INCREASING SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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