WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.5N 147.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 92NM
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
LINES VISIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CDO. PERSISTENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND VIGOROUS OVERSHOOTING CONVECTION
COUPLED WITH A FAINT REGION OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS IS FORESHADOWING
A POSSIBLE EYE DEVELOPMENT. A SUITE OF 220531Z SSMIS AND 220606Z
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES IN A CLAW LIKE SHAPE. COMPARING THE
37GHZ AND 89-91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A PERSISTENT TILT TO
THE CIRCULATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE, THE
TWO SUITES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS MSI IMAGERY REVEAL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF TROCHOIDAL MOTION AS 02W STEAMS TOWARDS GUAM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, SSMIS
AND GMI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST DVORAK AND
CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH INDICATE T4.5-T5.0 WITH A BULK
OF THE ESTIMATES CLOSER TO THE JTWC INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 220007Z ASCAT-B

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 85 KTS AT 220600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BOTH
SCATTEROMETRY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAVE DEFINITIVELY RESOLVED THE
LLCC'S POSITION SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS SHIFT
WHEN INTERPOLATED DOWNSTREAM, BRINGS THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS WELL AND THEREFORE LENDS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT 02W WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF GUAM VIS NORTHEAST. THIS
CHANGE COUPLED WITH A PERSISTENT INDICATION THAT THE NER TO THE
EAST WILL PROVIDE GREATER WESTWARD FORCING ON 02W, HAS RESULTED IN
THE SLIGHT FORECAST TRACK MIGRATION. HAVING SAID THAT, THE
MAGNITUDE OF TRACK SHIFT BY TAU 48 IS 20 MILES.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W (MAWAR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE NER RIDGE TO THE EAST. 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS 02W CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY, THE SYSTEM WILL COCOON ITSELF IN A MOISTURE BUBBLE AND
GENERALLY SHRUG OFF THE DRY AIR BEING FUNNELED EQUATORWARD BY THE
STR. THESE ELEMENTS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 105KTS BY
TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, THE NER TO THE EAST WILL REORIENT AND
SHIFT POLEWARD, FORCING 02W TO ALTER COURSE AND STEADY UP ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY HEADING. AFTER PASSING POLEWARD OF GUAM, 02W
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH PLENTY OF DEEP OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC) TO CONTINUE GAINING INTENSITY AND REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 130KTS BU TAU 120, WHICH IS SUPER-TYPHOON STRENGTH.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
70NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 48 AFTER WHICH A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF CROSS TRACK SPREADING TAKES PLACE. FOR THIS REASON, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
EVENTUALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS AS WELL AS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS INDICATING ROBUST AND PERSISTENT
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TAU
AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN