WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.1N 147.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 108 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EYE FEATURE. IT APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO
FORM JUST UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF
MSI LOOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS A
WELL-TIMED BULLSEYE OCCURRED FROM A 220007Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE.
THE TILT FROM THE UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE BECOMING
MORE BAROTROPIC, AS EVIDENCED IN THE MOST RECENT 212100Z F-17 SSMIS
91GHZ AND 37GHZ CHANNELS. THIS LINKAGE HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, WHICH IS WHY THE
PERCEIVED EYE FEATURE MAY BE FORMING AS WELL. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGES COMING FROM GUAM INDICATE RAINBANDS ARE REMAINING OFFSHORE
AT THE CURRENT TIME. THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL DRY-AIR ENTRAINING
INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS COCOONED
ITSELF IN A WELL-PROTECTED MARSUPIAL POUCH OF WARM MOIST AIR WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE DVORAK FIX
AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A 220007Z METOP-B
ASCAT.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 212330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W (MAWAR) WILL CONTINUE ON THE SAME
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE ROUTE TOWARD THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSITY AS
IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER.
THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING TY 02W WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORECAST DURATION, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS, ROBUST OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND NEGATE ANY OF THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LIMITED DRY-AIR
ENTRAINMENT. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TY MAWAR WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, FUELED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM SSTS, AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS JUST BEFORE
REACHING THE ISLANDS OF GUAM AND ROTA. AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH THE
ROTA CHANNEL, THE NER TO THE EAST WILL REORIENT AND BUILD FURTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING MAWAR TO MOVE ON A MORE FLATTENED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. BY TAU 120, TY 02W WILL HAVE AMPLE
RUNNING SPACE AND PLENTY OF DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA TO CONTINUE GAINING INTENSITY AND REACH A PEAK OF
125KTS, JUST SHY OF SUPER-TYPHOON STRENGTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: OUR FAITHFUL AFUM AND NAVGEM ARE AT IT ONCE
AGAIN, WITH THE LEFT BIAS TENDENCY FROM THE MAIN BODY OF MODEL
CONSENSUS. BARRING THOSE TWO MODELS, THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
A MODEST 34NM BY TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE SPREAD ONLY INCREASES
SLIGHTLY TO 57NM. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CARRY THE
SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48, AFTER WHICH EVERY MEMBER
ALTERS COURSE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 72 AND BEYOND TO TAU 120, THE ALONG-TRACK SPREADING
CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND EVENTUALLY WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING, RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS AS WELL AS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) AIDS INDICATING ROBUST AND PERSISTENT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
TAU 60 WITH COAMPS-TC LEADING THE CHARGE. THE RI FACTOR ALSO SHOWS
IN THE GEFS, BUT IT IS IN THE LATER 72-96 TAUS AND IS A MUCH LOWER
PROBABILITY. ONCE 02W MOVES INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA, THE RI WILL
MOST LIKELY OCCUR, BUT AS TO THE EXACT TIMING, IT IS LESS CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME AND FOR THESE REASONS; THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TAU AND MEDIUM
THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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