WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 8.5N 148.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 89 NM NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE CONTINUING TO
OBSCURE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BENEATH. A POINT
SOURCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INDUCING
A TILT IN THE SYSTEM AND CHOKING OFF ANY EQUATORWARD EXHAUST. THE
TILT IN THE UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE LIMITED DUAL
CHANNEL EXHAUST HAVE HINDERED THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR MAWAR
OVER THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. THE TILT IS MOST RECOGNIZABLE USING BOTH
THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 211823Z SSMIS 91GHZ AND 37GHZ
CHANNELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
USING THE MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO REVEAL A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WRAPPING NEARLY COMPLETELY AROUND THE
LLCC. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES COMING FROM GUAM INDICATE RAINBANDS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE LLCC REMAINS WELL OUT OF
VIEW AT THIS TIME. THE MOST RECENT 211532Z GCOMW-1 AMSR2 WIND SPEED
PRODUCT INDICATES THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE NEAR THE REGION OF HIGHEST
CONVECTION WITH A MAX INTENSITY OF 76 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AMSR2
PRODUCT, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE DVORAK FIX AGENCIES OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 73 KTS AT 211541Z
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 211730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW.


ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W (MAWAR) IS ON A STEADY ASCENT IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
STEADY INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NER. THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING TY 02W REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORECAST DURATION, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS AND
ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT BOTH POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OVERWHELMING THUS
NEGATING THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LIMITED DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
MODERATE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TY MAWAR WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
INTO A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, FUELED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS. BETWEEN TAUS
48 AND 72, THE NER TO THE EAST WILL REORIENT AND BUILD FURTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING MAWAR TO STEADY UP ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE AFTER PASSING JUST NORTH OF GUAM AND
SOUTH OF ROTA. BY TAU 120, NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS AND DEEP OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA, 02W WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115KTS AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: AGAIN, EXCEPT FOR AFUM, WHICH REMAINS THE SOLE
LEFT OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 94NM BY TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE SPREAD
INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO 105NM. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
CARRY THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48, AFTER WHICH EVERY
MEMBER ALTERS COURSE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTER TAU 72 AND BEYOND TO TAU 120, THE ALONG-TRACK
SPREADING CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINING
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND EVENTUALLY WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING, RELIABLE
MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS
AS WELL AS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS INDICATING ROBUST AND
PERSISTENT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 60. ONCE 02W MOVES INTO THE
PHILIPPINE SEA, GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL
OCCUR. FOR THESE REASONS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND EVENTUALLY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO AN INCREASING DISCREPANCY IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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