WDPN31 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 6.8N 149.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 22 NM SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION, NOW DESCRIBED AS A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC), COMPLETELY OBSCURES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN BALL OF CONVECTION AND IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LIMITED DATA, USING ONLY THE MSI LOOP AND MULTIPLE AGENCY FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED UPON MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES ALONG WITH MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (59KTS), D-MINT (47KTS), AND D-PRINT (55KTS). THE POLEWARD CHANNEL CONTINUES TO HELP THE MAIN OUTFLOW FOR FURTHER ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUITABLE FOR TS MAWAR TO BLOOM AND DEVELOP FURTHER, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 202244Z CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 202330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W (MAWAR) IS CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A MAJOR CYCLONE AS IT PROGRESSES ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE MARIANA ISLANDS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE EAST AND STR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO HELP DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), AND STRONG NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE BURGEONING DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW MAWAR TO DEVELOP INTO TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 24. THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 72 HOURS, TS 02W WILL MOVE INTO A MORE RELAXED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REGION WITH GREATER OUTFLOW, ENHANCING THE CORE CONVECTION MORE RAPIDLY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH PEAK INTENSITIES OF 95 KNOTS JUST BEFORE REACHING THE MARIANA ISLANDS OF GUAM, ROTA, AND SAIPAN. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PASS JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF GUAM AND BETWEEN ROTA AS THE NER BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE MARIANA ISLAND CHAIN, FROM TAU 96 AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY THE STR OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE VERY WARM WATERS (30-31C) AND VASTLY DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA, IT WILL STRENGTHEN TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105KTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO GREATER FOCUS, WITH A MUCH TIGHTER GROUPING THAN THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. AFUM REMAINS THE FAR-LEFT OUTLIER AND NAVGEM HAS REGAINED THE HERD. EXCLUDING AFUM, THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY AN 85NM SPREAD THROUGH TAU 72, WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LAID JUST EAST OF GUAM. ADDING AFUM TO THE MIX ONLY SPREADS THE GUIDANCE TO 123NM FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME. FOR THESE REASONS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER, CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY WANES SLIGHTLY AS THE MODEL SPREAD GRADUALLY INCREASES AFTER GUAM, TO A DISTANCE OF 154NM. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS AS WELL AS SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATE INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 AND A MORE GRADUAL INCREASE AFTER TAU 72 AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN