WDPN31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 5.7N 149.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 546 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPING CIRCULATION WITH A FORMING CDO (CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST) FEATURE AND TRANSVERSE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A FORTUITOUS 201152Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALED A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 30-35KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC WHILE THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS PREDOMINANTLY 15-20KT WINDS. A RECENT 201003Z AMSUB 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THOUGH NOT THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION, IT DOES DISPLAY THAT A PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IS CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 201152Z BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETRY PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED NOT ONLY ON THE SCATTEROMETERY PASS BUT ALSO THE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 35KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 201130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W (MAWAR) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE EAST AND STR TO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS MORE THAN COMPENSATED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C) AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 02W HAS A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES BUILDING AND CORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES. AFTER TAU 24, 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNTIL REACHING 90KTS BY TAU 72. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES POLEWARD AND EAST OF GUAM, THE NER TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO REORIENT AND BUILD FURTHER POLEWARD AND EASTWARD. THIS SHIFT WILL HAVE TWO PRIMARY IMPACTS ON 02W, IT WILL BEGIN TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL AS NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS LARGE REDUCTION IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO LEVEL OUT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. BY TAU 120, NOW CLEAR OF GUAM, 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 100KTS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, SHOWING A 200NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BY TAU 72. NAVGEM AND AFUM REPRESENT THE EXTREME EAST AND WEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHILE THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK JUST EAST OF GUAM, FURTHERMORE, ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND HWRF ARE THE PRIMARY MEMBERS THAT BRING THE SYSTEM WEST OF GUAM. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS AS WELL AS SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS SHOWING A MODERATE INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 AND A MORE GRADUAL INCREASE AFTER TAU 72 AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN