WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) 
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 5.7N 149.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 543 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES RAPID
CONSOLIDATION AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NUMEROUS VERTICAL HOT TOWERS CAN BE OBSERVED
ORBITING THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC OF 02W. A RECENT 200556Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVING YET STILL FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY OBSCURED NATURE OF THE
LLCC IN MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NEAR TOTAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND VARIOUS AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUCH AS CIMSS SATCON AND ADT, ALL OF WHICH
INDICATE 30KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 28 KTS AT 200323Z
   CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 200530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS MORE THAN
COMPENSATED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C) AND BUILDING
OUTFLOW ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TD 02W HAS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUILDS AND CORE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTER TAU 24, HAVING REACHED
TROPICAL STORM STATUS, 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING UNTIL REACHING 85KTS NEAR TAU 72. AS THE 
SYSTEM PASSES JUST EAST OF GUAM, THE STR TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO 
REORIENT AND BUILD FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD, THIS SHIFT WILL PUSH THE 
SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 120, 
NOW CLEAR OF GUAM, 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
HAVING REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH A BULK OF THE GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. AFUM, ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND HWRF ARE THE ONLY MEMBERS
AT THIS TIME THAT BRING THE SYSTEM WEST OF GUAM. AFTER TAU 72, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM, ALL MEMBER GUIDANCE SHIFT THE TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH ALL MEMBERS
SHOWING ONLY A 130NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD THROUGH TAU 96, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS AS WELL AS SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) AIDS SHOWING A STEEP INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48 AND
A MORE GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS
REASON THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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