WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING 
NR 
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 5.4N 149.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 102 NM SOUTH OF PULUWAT
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
BULLSEYE 192310Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25KTS IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE ASCAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE POLEWARD AND SLIGHT WESTWARD.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 02W WILL BEGIN A NORTHERLY JOG AS THE STR
OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. TD 02W WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO A ROBUST TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE
EARLY INDICATIONS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24 AS TD 02W
MOVES INTO A RICHER ENVIRONMENT DUE TO AN ENHANCED OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TOWARD THE POLEWARD SIDE MAINLY, WHICH WILL HELP THE SYSTEM DEVELOP
TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BEFORE TAU 48. DURING THE NORTHWEST JAUNT, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING FURTHER IN THE JUICY ENVIRONMENT,
TRACK AROUND THE STR, STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 90KTS AS IT SPLITS THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS OF ROTA AND SAIPAN THROUGH TAU 96. BY TAU
120, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS OKINAWA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THE TRACK
WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWEST TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE INITIAL CROSS-TRACK BETWEEN THE FAR LEFT EGRR, AFUM,
AND FAR RIGHT OUTLIER NVGM IS SPREAD FROM 100NM AT TAU 12 AND
SPREADS TO 300NM BY TAU 72. EXCLUDING THESE THREE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS, THE TRACK HAS A MUCH TIGHTER SPREAD, ONLY 138NM AT THE
WIDEST OUT TO TAU 96 WHEN USING GFS, ECMF, JGSM, AND THEIR
RESPECTED ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE, THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE HWRF AND COTC SOLUTIONS AND
IS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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