WDIO31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.7N 91.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 140 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 216 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (MOCHA) REMAINS A LARGE SYMMETRICAL STORM, SEEN ON BOTH THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND THE FIRST FEW IMAGES OF THE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE LOOP. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INDICATIONS OF A PEAK. HOWEVER, TC 01B (MOCHA) HAD OTHER PLANS AND INTENSIFIED BY SOME ESTIMATES TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 145KTS OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL ACCORDING TO THE DEEP MICRONET (DMN) ESTIMATOR AND AN EARLIER 131938Z AMSR-2 IMAGE. AT 132330Z, THE SYMMETRICAL 20NM EYE FEATURE HAD A CENTER TEMPERATURE WITH A +3C PIXEL, AS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY AROUND THE INNER CORE. THE TROCHOIDAL MOTION SEIZED AS THE SYSTEM INCREASED ITS NORTHEAST PROJECTION TOWARDS THE MYANMAR COAST. THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY AS THE JET MAX OVER SOUTHERN CHINA MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, AWAY FROM TC MOCHA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RECENT MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF MULTIPLE AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES, ALONG WITH THE OPEN-AIIR ESTIMATE OF 145 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). CONDITIONS HAVE CHANGED SLIGHTLY AND LACK FAVORABILITY FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE INCREASED MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 131938Z AMSR-2 WIND SPEED IMAGE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 140000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MOCHA HAS REGAINED THE TRACK SPEED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 8 TO 10 HOURS ALONG THE MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN TEKNAF AND SITTWE. THE INTENSITY WILL BE AT OR NEAR 120-125 KNOTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL HINDER THE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WITH INCREASING VWS, ALONG WITH COASTAL UPWELLING DUE TO THE SHALLOWING OF THE COASTAL WATERS. TC MOCHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, AND SHORTLY AFTER MAKING INITIAL LANDFALL, IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR, INTERACTING WITH ROUGHER TERRAIN, AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEAST MYANMAR. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LESS THAN 35NM SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL DECREASE INTENSITY NEAR LANDFALL AND THEN DRASTICALLY WEAKEN THROUGH DISSIPATION AFTER LAND INTERACTION TAKES PLACE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN