WDIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA) 
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.6N 88.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 494 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A HIGHLY
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING IN TIGHTLY INTO A
DEEP COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH A DEFINED 12-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT 6-HR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). ANALYSIS
INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A MODERATE VWS OFFSET
BY STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE BAY OF BENGAL.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 120900Z
   UW-CIMSS DMN: 80 KTS AT 120600Z
   UW-CIMSS AIDT: 80 KTS AT 120600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 31-32 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MOCHA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER SHORTLY AFTER TAU 42.
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER FUEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO A PEAK OF 120KTS BY TAU 24; AFTERWARD, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO COOLING SST APPROACHING THE COAST. AFTER
LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 100 BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH RI AND
LAND INTERACTION. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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