WDIO31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA) 
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.0N 88.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 536 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG,
BANGLADESH
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL
AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING IN
TIGHTER INTO THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH A DEFINED, ALBEIT
ELONGATED, 20-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT 6-HR
IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
A MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 120300Z
   UW-CIMSS DMN: 70 KTS AT 120600Z
   UW-CIMSS AIDT: 68 KTS AT 120600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MOCHA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER FUEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO A PEAK OF 110KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL,
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 80 BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH RI AND LAND
INTERACTION. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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