WDIO31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.4N 88.2E
  INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 582 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COXS BAZAR
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SYMMETRIC
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE INNER CORE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
01B (MOCHA). THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH HEALTHY
TRANSVERSE BANDING EMANATING FROM THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST, INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 120001Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF
AGENCY DVORAK AND SATCON ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD 
RADIAL OUTFLOW SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE EAST, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 DEGREES C).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 72 KTS AT 111942Z
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 112100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE MOCHA HAS BEGUN ITS TURN AND IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT IS STEERED 
AROUND A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AS IT DOES 
SO, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED 
INTENSIFICATION. WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD OUTFLOW, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO 
OCCUR. THE PEAK INTENSITY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED TO 
120 KNOTS AT TAU 48, GIVEN MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH MAY 
ALREADY BE UNDERWAY. THE ONLY POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS A SLIVER OF 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 DEGREES C) AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT JUST OFFSHORE OF MYANMAR, BUT PEAK INTENSITY IS STILL LIKELY 
TO BE REACHED JUST A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL 
AROUND TAU 60, RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MYANMAR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 100 NM AT LANDFALL, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ASSESSED AT MEDIUM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BECAUSE OF THE 
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH 
THE HOURS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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