WDIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA) 
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.0N 88.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 653 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG,
BANGLADESH
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SYMMETRICAL AND CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS WRAPPING 
TIGHTER AND INTERLOCKING TOWARD THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH 
INCREASED OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 111133Z 
SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES REFLECTS THE 6-HR STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY
MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE BAY OF BENGAL.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 110900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MOCHA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER AROUND TAU 66. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS AT
TAU 48 AND TO A PEAK OF 100KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD,
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 122 BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST UP TO THAT POINT. AFTERWARD, THE MODEL
ENVELOPE SPREADS OUT MORE UNEVENLY; THIS PLUS THE UNCERTAINTIES OF
A LAND PASSAGE LEND LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM UP 
TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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