WDIO31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA) 
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.4N 88.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 688 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG,
BANGLADESH
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL
AND FAST-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER AND
INTERLOCKING TOWARD THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 110357Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS AND REFLECTS THE
SIGNIFICANT 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND WARM SST IN THE BAY OF BENGAL.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 110600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 110300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MOCHA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
95KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED
TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TOWARD
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 65NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST UP TO THAT POINT. AFTERWARD, THE
MODEL ENVELOPE SPREADS OUT MORE UNEVENLY; THIS PLUS THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF A LAND PASSAGE LEND LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN