WDXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 
059//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.9S 37.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 21 NM EAST OF QUELIMANE, MOZAMBIQUE
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 1 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS EVIDENCED BY THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS
BECOME MORE DENSE AND COMPACT WHILE MAINTAINING A SYMMETRICAL
STRUCTURE, TIGHTLY WRAPPED FEEDER BANDS, AND A WELL-DEFINED PINHOLE
EYE AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE ITS SECONDARY LANDFALL INTO MOZAMBIQUE
NEAR QUELIMANE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED BASED ON THE
AVERAGE OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND
MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 110900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING STR, IMMEDIATELY MAKE LANDFALL AND TRACK TOWARD MALAWI
BUT WILL MAKE A CLOCKWISE U-TURN BY TAU 48 NEAR THE BORDER. LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE THE RAPID
EROSION LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AFTER IT MAKES A U-TURN
IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION BACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVENTUAL U-TURN, ALBEIT IN VARYING TRACK SPEEDS AND DEGREE OF TURN,
WITH SOME OFFERING A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE SOLUTION. THIS, PLUS THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH LAND PASSAGE, LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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