WDXS31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 058// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.1S 37.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 286 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND INTENSIFIED SHARPLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 102306Z AMSR2 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED 15 TO 20NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES FUELING THE RECENT RESURGENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 110000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: FRICTIONAL EFFECTS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF LAND ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S HAS SLOWED AND APPEARS TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH LANDFALL FORECAST NEAR TAU 12. DESPITE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, TC 11S SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 12 UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. AFTER TAU 48, TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO COMPETING STEERING. MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATING A STALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE AND EVENTUAL EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BACK OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE (GEFS) GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST INLAND WHILE THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE (EPS) GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS ALSO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS TIED DIRECTLY TO THE TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN