WDXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING 
NR 057//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 38.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 261 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
BANDING CIRCLING A MASS OF CONVECTION BLOOMING OVER AN ASSESSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A BULLSEYE 100711Z ASCAT-B PASS
HAS REVEALED THE 35 KNOT WIND FIELD HAS DECREASED IN DIAMETER OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS TC FREDDY MAKES ITS APPROACH TO SHORE. TC
FREDDY IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
(05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A HEALTHY 850 MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE, AND VERY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
OFFSET BY THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND
MULTI-AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 101124Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 101200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY IS IN A TUG-OF-WAR BETWEEN THE NER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 12, TC 11S
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 70 KTS DUE TO AN IMPROVING STRUCTURE
AND ENTERING AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL NEAR QUELIMANE, MOZAMBIQUE. BY TAU 24, TC FREDDY WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO 75 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. TC 11S
WILL THEN WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS THE REMNANTS WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC
TURN BACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, ONLY A HANDFUL
OF THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS SUGGESTED AN ALMOST 180 DEGREE
TURN IN TRAJECTORY AFTER LAND FALL. HOWEVER, NOW ALL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TC FREDDY WILL MAKE A TURN NORTHWARD,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND HEAD BACK TOWARDS
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. HOWEVER, THEY DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS EVENT AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE BEHAVIOR OF
THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DISPLAY THE FASTEST TRACK SPEEDS WITH INDICATIONS THAT TC
11S WILL BE BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY TAUS 96 AND 120.
ALL OF THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE STILL OVER LAND AT TAU 120, BUT WITH
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DOWNSTREAM OF THEIR TRACKS. DUE TO THIS
DISPARITY IN THE MODELS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ALL AGREE ON AN
INTENSIFYING SCENARIO UP TO AND INCLUDING LANDFALL, THEN A DECREASE
AFTERWARDS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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