WDXS31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 051// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.0S 42.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 116 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENTLY CONSOLIDATED TYPHOON STRENGTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A 6NM NASCENT EYE AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 071017Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED EYE FEATURE, A PROMINENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE TO THE EAST AND AN EXPOSED WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH IS REVEALING TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES BENEATH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REACTING TO THE RECENTLY DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE WHILE FMEE AND CIMMS AUTOMATED ESTIMATES REMAIN BEHIND THE TIMES. HAVING SHOWN RELIABILITY IN DATA SPARSE ENVIRONMENTS SUCH AS THIS, CIMMS DEEP MICRONET (DMN) AND OPEN-AIR USE OTHER AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO ASSESS TC INTENSITY. BOTH AFOREMENTIONED CIMMS PRODUCTS ASSESS THE INTENSITY NEAR THE JTWC INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 70 KTS AT 071127Z CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 071200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD OTHER FACTORS: DECREASING LAND INTERACTION AND UPWELLING ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING LAND INTERACTION AND UPWELLING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CHANNEL. FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVED TYPHOON STRENGTH VIA RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TC 11S (FREDDY) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, THERE IS NO SIGN OF SIGNIFICANT ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CORE OF THE TC. IF 11S CAN MAINTAIN THIS MOIST CORE, COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS, 11S IS FORECAST TO PEAK BY TAU 72 NEAR 105KTS. NEAR TAU 96, 11S WILL MAKE LANDFALL ONCE AGAIN OVER MOZAMBIQUE AND PROCEED INLAND WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 11S WILL PROCEED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96 AND PROCEEDING INLAND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IN THE EXTENDED TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING ERRATIC AND SEEMINGLY ERRONEOUS OUTPUTS WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF OCEAN COUPLING. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND EVENTUALLY SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CORRECT FOR THE MODELS ECCENTRICITIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN