WDXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) 
WARNING NR 050//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.0S 42.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 01 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT WRAPS AROUND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 062152Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A LLCC DEFINED BY A PROMINENT BUT VERY RAGGED
MICROWAVE EYE PARTIALLY OPEN IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE OVERALL
WINDFIELD IS ASSUMED TO HAVE BEEN RATHER STEADY STATE SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED 060608Z ASCAT-C PASS AND PARTIAL 060656Z ASCAT-B
PASS BUT WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SINCE THEN. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 11S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, WITH IMPROVING EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF OF A
BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SATCON.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 062212Z
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 070000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
LAST DAY AS IT HAS BEEN CAUGHT BETWEEN THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, PENDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF TC 11S.
AS OF 070000Z, THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS ONLY
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, FOLLOWED BY STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE.
HOWEVER, THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE. IF THE
INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES MORE RAPIDLY, THEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM CAN BE EXPECTED. AS TC
11S TRAVERSES A POOL OF HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OFF THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96, MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
BEYOND 80 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE, FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU
120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE NAVGEM AS
THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AND THE GALWEM AS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS THUS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGH
TAU 72 AND SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS BEYOND TAU
72. DUE TO THE MODERATE ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK ERRORS, THE OVERALL
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MEMBERS ALL SUGGEST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY
HIGH SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 72 GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN
LANDFALL TIMING. THE HWRF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE, BUT THINK THIS IS
UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE LACK OF OCEAN FEEDBACK IN THE RECENT RUNS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE
HWRF SOLUTION, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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