WDXS31 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 047// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.0S 42.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 121 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A STRUGGLING MASS OF CONVECTION BLOOMING OVER AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 051028Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE EVALUATED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 11S CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. TC FREDDY IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AN INTENSE 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED MSI, MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND MULTI-AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AGREEMENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SATCON. ADT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AT 39 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 051045Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 051230Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY IS BEING STEERED BY THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12. BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24, TC 11S WILL EXHIBIT A QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE BEFORE MAKING ITS DRAMATIC TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DURING THIS QUASI-STATIONARY STANCE, INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 55 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM WILL IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE AND REGAIN MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS. AFTER TAU 36, TS FREDDY WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRANSIT AS THE STR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE AREA. BY TAU 48, TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND REACH 65 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, TC FREDDY WILL PICK-UP TRACK SPEED WHILE HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. BY TAUS 72 AND 96, TC 11S WILL REACH 75 KNOTS AS IT WILL PROCEED TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A CONTINUOUS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY FOLLOWED BY A DRAMATIC TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 36. HOWEVER, THERE IS A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS, MOSTLY WITH GFS WHICH IS SHOWING A TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS SOLUTION BEING THE OUTLIER. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ALL AGREE ON AN INTENSIFYING SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 96, THEN A DECREASE AFTERWARDS, BUT ARE SPREAD BY ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS OUT TO TAU 48, AND THEN QUITE SPORADIC AFTERWARDS. GFS AND DECAY SHIPS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CONSENSUS, WHEREAS THE HIGH RESOLUTION COAMPS-TC IS ON THE LOWER END AND HWRF IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE SPREAD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALONG CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CONSENSUS OUT TO TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN