WDPS32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KEVIN) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 167.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 46 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE
SYSTEM THAT HAS FURTHER DEEPENED WITH OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS IN
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND EXPANSIVE FEEDER BANDS NOW TRAILING FROM
ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE FROM A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 030215Z 
AMSR-2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 
AVERAGE OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR 
IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
WARM SST, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   PHFO: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 82 KTS AT 030237Z
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 030220Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC KEVIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 24; AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
55KTS BY TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 170NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO VARIABILITY
INTRODUCED BY SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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