WDPS32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KEVIN) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.9S 166.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 109 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH VIGOROUS CORE CONVECTION. A
021900Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A
NEARLY SYMMETRIC CYAN RING, INDICATIVE OF ONGOING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. A FORTUITOUS 022149Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS
ALSO INDICATES A SYMMETRIC AND CONSOLIDATED WIND FIELD AS 16P
PASSES SOUTH OF VANUATU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, SSMIS AND ASCAT-B IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
FACT THAT ALL AVAILABLE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
AUTOMATED ESTIMATES SUCH AS CIMSS ADT ECHO THE JTWC FORECAST
INTENSITY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   NFFN: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 73 KTS AT 022015Z
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 022330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY,
TC 16P (KEVIN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN 16P THROUGH TAU 24 UNTIL
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 100 KTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. AFTER
TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
THROUGH TAU 48, DOWN TO APPROXIMATELY 85KTS. BY THIS TIME, TC 16P
WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A
200NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BY TAU 72, A MAJORITY OF THIS SPREAD IS
DUE TO NAVGEM TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF AND GFS,
RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 AND AFTER TAU 36, 16P WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NAVGEM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE AN
UNREALISTIC WEAKENING TREND WHICH IS LARGELY DISPROVEN BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA OR SCATTEROMETRY PASSES. DUE TO THE
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON PEAK INTENSITY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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