WDPS32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KEVIN) 
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.4S 165.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 168 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CD0), WHICH IS FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021402Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ORBITING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC PARTIALLY REVEALING THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD LINES BENEATH. BASED ON THE FULLY OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC
IN EIR THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 65-77KTS WHICH
MATCHES A 021400Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE RADIOMETER PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 65 KTS AT 021406Z
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 021730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING RECENTLY ACHIEVED TYPHOON STRENGTH, TC
16P (KEVIN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG OUTFLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY 16P THROUGH TAU 24-TAU 36
UNTIL REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 95 KTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. 
AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48 DOWN TO 85KTS. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 72, TC 16P
WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 96, WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WILL ALL MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
AFTER TAU 72, NAVGEM TAKES A SHARP POLEWARD TURN WHILE THE REAMING
GUIDANCE CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HWRF AND GFS TAKING AN
UNREALISTIC WEAKENING TREND AND THEN STAGNATION WHILE THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS THROUGH TAU
24 AND FOLLOWING TAU 36, ALL MEMBERS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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