WDPS32 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KEVIN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.1S 165.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 207 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP, FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND EXPANSIVE FEEDER BANDS TRAILING MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 021037Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR EIR SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS PHFO: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 021130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC KEVIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 95KTS BY TAU 36; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 72, TC 16P WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 96, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAIN PACK OF NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 196NM BY TAU 96 WITH NAVGEM THE SOLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TAU 72, THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD DUE TO VARIABILITY INTRODUCED BY SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN