WDPS32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KEVIN) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.2S 164.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 289 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM 
WITH DEEPENING AND FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND EXPANSIVE FEEDER 
BANDS TRAILING MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM A DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 020310Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED 
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE DEEPENING SYSTEM. ANALYSIS INDICATES 
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG OUTFLOW 
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 59 KTS AT 020257Z
   CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 020530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC KEVIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 95KTS BY TAU 48; AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
55KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 72, TC 16P WILL BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 96, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 220NM BY TAU 96, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TAU 72, THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD DUE TO VARIABILITY INTRODUCED BY SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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