WDPS31 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (JUDY) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.4S 173.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 417 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE EXCEPT FOR INCREASED STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 020426Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COOLING SST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS PHFO: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 020600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC JUDY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45KTS BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 24, TC 15P WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 180NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY INTRODUCED BY SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN