WDXS32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.2S 67.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 760 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DETERIORATING 
SYSTEM INUNDATED BY MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VWS, PARTLY
EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE
MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LLC IN THE 270421Z ASCAT BULLSEYE 
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
THE ASCAT IMAGE AND OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK 
ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERIORATED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. 
THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH THE STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY 
THE MODERATE TO STRONG VWS AND COOL SST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COL AREA BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STR) TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 270300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO TAU
72, OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA WILL LOOP COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AS THE
STR TO THE WEST INITIALLY ASSUMES STEERING. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR
TO THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. 
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THEN SUSTAIN 
IT AT ABOUT 35KTS UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR BY 
TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
THE LOOPING MOTION; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STEERING
MECHANISMS AND THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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