WDXS32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) 
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.0S 66.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 740 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER
AND A PARTIAL 261705 ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS WITH
45 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
ASSESSED AS MARGINAL BASED ON STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RELATIVELY COOL
(25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 64 KTS AT 261346Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 261500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S (ENALA) HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED AS
A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST AS BEGUN TO COMPETE WITH THE STR
TO THE EAST AS THE DOMINATE STEERING FEATURE. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE
COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN, OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION. ADDITIONALLY,
THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BATTLE A COMBINATION OF STRONG VWS WHILE MEANDERING IN
RELATIVELY COOL SSTS. BETWEEN TAU 24-36 THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STR THE SOUTHWEST
BECOMING THE MORE DOMINATE STEERING FEATURE. FURTHERMORE, THE
COMBINATION OF LESS THAN OPTIMAL CONDITIONS DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH
VWS, COOL SSTS, AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT
IN DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE
ERRATIC BY TAU 24. AS THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
DIVERGE TO THE EAST FROM THE OTHER MEMBERS BASED ON THE COMBINATION
OF THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND A WEAK VORTEX. THEREFORE, THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC FORECAST
LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE BROAD AGREEMENT OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MEMBERS WITH MANY MEMBERS SHOWING A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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