WDXS32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.0S 67.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 728 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DETERIORATING 
SYSTEM INUNDATED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VWS, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP AND LINED 
UP WITH A DEFINED LLC IN THE 260437Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE RATE OF 
DETERIORATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH THE STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG VWS AND COOLING SST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (SR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 260300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STR UP TO TAU 24. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST WILL COMPETE 
FOR STEERING, FORCING THE CYCLONE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) LOOPING 
MODE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP 
TO TAU 24 AT BEST; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL LEAD 
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN A QS 
LOOPING MOTION.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
24; AFTERWARD, THE MEMBERS SPREAD OUT ERRATICALLY, AN INDICATION OF
A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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