WDXS32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) 
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.3S 67.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 692 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE LLC DUE TO THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 251400Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, ALONG WITH THE EIR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS, EACH OFFSET BY THE
STRONG VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 251500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STR THAT RESIDES TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU
24. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NW WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING,
FORCING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS). THE
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE VWS RELAXES SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 36, THE
COMPLEX STEERING WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR GREATER
UPWELLING IN AN ALREADY COOLER SST ENVIRONMENT. THE COOLER SSTS
WILL WANE HEAVILY ON THE LLC AS IT MEANDERS TO THE NW AND BEGINS
THE DISSIPATION PROCESS BY TAU 48, FINISHING BY TAU 72, IF NOT
SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
24; AFTERWARD, THE MEMBERS SPREAD OUT IRREGULARLY, WHICH CAN BE AN
EARLY INDICATION OF THE VORTEX WEAKENING RAPIDLY. BECAUSE OF THIS,
THE CONFIDENCE FOR BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
REMAINS MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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