WDXS32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.0S 68.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 691 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DETERIORATING 
SYSTEM INUNDATED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VWS, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT SMAP PASS AND 
THE RATE OF DETERIORATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSET BY STRONG VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (SR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 250300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY STR 
TO THE NW WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING, FORCING THE CYCLONE IN A QUASI-
STATIONARY (QS) MODE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12, AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING 
SST WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72,
POSSIBLY SOONER, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS QS.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 36; AFTERWARD, THE MEMBERS SPREAD OUT ERRATICALLY, AN
INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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